Shrewsbury 3–3 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Gillingham

G. Lloyd 45', 10'

L. Hoole 22'

E. Nevitt 86'

R. McKenzie 66' (pen)

S. Stubbs 37' (OG)

11/29/2025

League Two · Round 18The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Shrewsbury37%

×Draw26%

Gillingham37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.30

Shrewsbury

1.31

Gillingham

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.10

creates per match

1.21

1.40

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.10

Gillingham

1.21

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.40

Gillingham

1.53

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.01on par

Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

63%

Shrewsbury or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

63%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

17%

Gillingham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

73%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

38%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

14%

Gillingham 1+ goals

73%

Gillingham 2+ goals

37%

Gillingham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

50%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 9 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.10 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Shrewsbury defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

37%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

37%

Shrewsbury at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Lloyd

Shrewsbury · F

8.9

Match Events

10'

22'

27'

34'

37'

S. StubbsOwn goal

45'

G. Lloyd↳ A. Scully

57'

Josh Andrews

60'

N. Khumbeni← J. Williams

60'

L. Cirino← M. Clark

61'

Ismeal Kabia

66'

R. McKenziePenalty

74'

C. Aneke← A. Scully

74'

J. Marquis← I. Kabia

81'

Lenni Rae Cirino

82'

E. Nevitt← S. Palmer-Houlden

86'

E. Nevitt↳ G. McCleary

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyGillingham

Overview

32%Possession68%

17Total Shots16

1.26Expected Goals (xG)1.94

1Corners9

10Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots16

5On Target3

6Off Target9

6Blocked4

12Inside Box13

5Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

188Total Passes390

79Accurate Passes281

42%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4

League Two: Shrewsbury 3–3 Gillingham

Shrewsbury and Gillingham drew 3-3 in League Two on November 29, 2025.

Goals: G. Lloyd (10', 45'), L. Hoole (22'), S. Stubbs (37' o.g.), R. McKenzie (66' pen), E. Nevitt (86').

Gillingham controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 17.

The match was played at The Croud Meadow in Shrewsbury.

Shrewsbury vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Shrewsbury 3–3 Gillingham