Gillingham 0–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shrewsbury

4/10/2021

League One · Round 41Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gillingham39%

×Draw27%

Shrewsbury34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.17

Gillingham

1.29

Shrewsbury

1.17

Gillingham creates 10% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 152 away

1.19

creates per match

0.86

1.48

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

66%

Gillingham or Shrewsbury

73%

Draw or Shrewsbury

61%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

18%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

72%

Gillingham 2+ goals

37%

Gillingham 3+ goals

14%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

69%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

33%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

54%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gillingham scores more

39%

level

27%

Shrewsbury scores more

34%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Bonham

Gillingham · G

7.9

Match Events

22'

Stuart O'Keefe

46'

D. Samuel← J. Akinde

46'

R. McKenzie← S. OKeefe

68'

77'

79'

79'

86'

H. Chapman← S. Whalley

86'

C. Main← D. Udoh

88'

D. Edwards← S. Goss

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamShrewsbury

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots17

3Corners9

10Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots17

3On Target4

7Off Target6

3Blocked7

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

278Total Passes369

168Accurate Passes246

60%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1