Shrewsbury 1–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gillingham

B. Walker 12'

J. Graham 90+4'

10/3/2020

League One · Round 4Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Shrewsbury37%

×Draw27%

Gillingham36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.25

Shrewsbury

1.26

Gillingham

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 99 away

1.14

creates per match

1.17

1.32

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

64%

Shrewsbury or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

63%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

16%

Gillingham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

72%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

36%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

13%

Gillingham 1+ goals

71%

Gillingham 2+ goals

36%

Gillingham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

50%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

37%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

36%

Shrewsbury at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Whalley

Shrewsbury · F

7.3

Match Events

12'

B. Walker↳ S. Whalley

39'

J. Daniels← S. Whalley

46'

D. Drysdale← J. Mellis

56'

73'

75'

77'

81'

85'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyGillingham

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots10

6Corners3

16Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target1

3Off Target4

1Blocked5

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

403Total Passes332

225Accurate Passes168

56%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0