Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town: Preview & Prediction

Shrewsbury

Preview

15:00

Fleetwood Town

2/13/2027

League Two · Round 31The Croud Meadow

Big match

39%

Shrewsbury

model favours

39%27%34%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Shrewsbury39%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.23

Shrewsbury

1.33

Fleetwood Town

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.11

creates per match

1.15

1.32

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.11

Fleetwood Town

1.15

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Fleetwood Town

1.54

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Shrewsbury-0.02on par

Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

66%

Shrewsbury or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

61%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

18%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

74%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

38%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

15%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

71%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

35%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

53%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.11 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

39%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

34%

Shrewsbury at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Shrewsbury

Direct / counter-attacking

Fleetwood Town

Balanced

44%Possession48%

60%Pass accuracy68%

11.5Shots12.1

0.91xGBiggest gap1.32

ShrewsburyFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4

Shrewsbury

2

Draws

4

Fleetwood Town

Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 40%

2–21–33–11–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Shrewsbury

WWDDL

Town

WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury face Fleetwood Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Shrewsbury hosting Fleetwood Town. Match starts February 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shrewsbury host Fleetwood Town at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Shrewsbury face Fleetwood Town (League Two)