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Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
1/1/2024League OneLeague One · Round 26The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Shrewsbury37%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 156 home / 134 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.18

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.31
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
64%
Shrewsbury or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
63%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
16%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
72%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
37%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
14%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
71%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
36%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
51%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.13 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Shrewsbury defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
37%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
36%

Shrewsbury at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town

Shrewsbury beat Fleetwood Town 3-1 in League One on January 1, 2024.

The match was played at The Croud Meadow in Shrewsbury, Shropshire.