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Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
4/25/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 45The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shrewsbury35%
×Draw28%
Fleetwood Town38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.17
Fleetwood Town
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 46 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
0.96
Fleetwood Town
1.28

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.17
Fleetwood Town
1.37

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
62%
Shrewsbury or Fleetwood Town
72%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
65%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
14%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
69%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
33%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
11%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
71%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
35%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
48%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 0.96 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fleetwood Town attack 1.28 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
35%
level
28%
Fleetwood Town scores more
38%

Fleetwood Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Shrewsbury 2–2 Fleetwood Town

Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town drew 2-2 in League Two on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at The Croud Meadow in Shrewsbury.