Shrewsbury 1–1 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

L. Leahy 48' (pen)

A. Pilkington 21'

2/5/2022

League One · Round 31Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Shrewsbury38%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.24

Shrewsbury

1.28

Fleetwood Town

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 135 away

1.14

creates per match

1.16

1.32

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Fleetwood Town

1.16

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

64%

Shrewsbury or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

62%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

17%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

72%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

37%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

14%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

71%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

35%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

51%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Fleetwood Town attack 1.16 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

38%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

36%

Shrewsbury at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Bennett

Shrewsbury · M

7.3

Match Events

21'

A. Pilkington↳ C. Johnson

46'

S. Janneh← T. Fornah

48'

L. LeahyPenalty

61'

D. Butterworth← A. Nsiala

69'

Luke Leahy

76'

S. Morris← A. Pilkington

79'

90+2'

90+3'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyFleetwood

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots11

7Corners3

8Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target3

3Off Target4

2Blocked4

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

369Total Passes385

269Accurate Passes281

73%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0