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Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Preview
19:45
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
1/19/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 26The Croud Meadow
38%
Shrewsbury
model favours
38%25%37%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Shrewsbury38%
×Draw25%
Crawley Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.49
Crawley Town
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.18
Crawley Town
1.51

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.43
Crawley Town
1.80

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.07on par
Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
63%
Shrewsbury or Crawley Town
75%
Draw or Crawley Town
62%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
18%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
77%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
44%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
19%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
77%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
43%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
51%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.18 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Shrewsbury defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
38%
level
25%
Crawley Town scores more
37%

Shrewsbury at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
Crawley Town
Balanced
42%Possession54%
58%Pass accuracy71%
11.5Shots12.7
0.93xGBiggest gap1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShrewsburyCrawley Town

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 50%
0–01–01–25–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shrewsbury
WWDDL
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury face Crawley Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Shrewsbury hosting Crawley Town. Match starts January 19, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shrewsbury host Crawley Town at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.