Crawley Town 3–5 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Shrewsbury

J. Kelly 90+5'

Junior Quitirna 62'

W. Swan 33'

G. Lloyd 90+2', 86'

J. Marquis 76' (pen), 26'

A. Nsiala 72'

10/12/2024

League One · Round 11Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Crawley Town42%

×Draw27%

Shrewsbury30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.09

Crawley Town

1.34

Shrewsbury

1.09

Crawley Town creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 152 away

1.30

creates per match

0.86

1.33

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.33

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

70%

Crawley Town or Shrewsbury

73%

Draw or Shrewsbury

58%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

20%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

74%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

39%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

15%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

66%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

30%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

58%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Crawley Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crawley Town scores more

42%

level

27%

Shrewsbury scores more

30%

Crawley Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Marquis

Shrewsbury · F

9.5

Match Events

26'

J. Marquis↳ M. Feeney

27'

33'

37'

43'

44'

53'

56'

56'

62'

M. Anderson← Junior Quitirna

62'

Junior Quitirna↳ H. Forster

63'

Panutche Camará← R. Darcy

70'

J. Kelly← R. Hepburn-Murphy

70'

J. Mukena← H. Forster

71'

G. Holohan← B. Ibrahim

71'

T. Perry← F. Ojo

71'

C. Sagoe Jr← L. Castledine

71'

T. Bloxham← J. Feeney

72'

A. Nsiala↳ M. Benning

75'

Toby Mullarkey

76'

J. MarquisPenalty

77'

86'

90+9'

90+2'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyShrewsbury

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots18

4Corners6

10Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots18

5On Target6

6Off Target6

4Blocked6

8Inside Box14

7Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

414Total Passes310

322Accurate Passes214

78%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury

Shrewsbury beat Crawley Town 5-3 in League One on October 12, 2024.

Goals: J. Marquis (26', 76' pen), W. Swan (33'), Junior Quitirna (62'), A. Nsiala (72'), G. Lloyd (86', 90+2'), J. Kelly (90+5').

Crawley Town controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 18.

The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.

Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury