Shrewsbury 1–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

W. Boyle 84'

10/18/2025

League Two · Round 13The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Shrewsbury38%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.47

Shrewsbury

1.49

Crawley Town

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.18

creates per match

1.51

1.43

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.18

Crawley Town

1.51

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.43

Crawley Town

1.80

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.07on par

Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

63%

Shrewsbury or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

62%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

18%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

77%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

44%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

19%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

77%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

43%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

51%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.18 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Shrewsbury defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

38%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

37%

Shrewsbury at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

W. Boyle

Shrewsbury · D

8.2

Match Events

31'

Harry McKirdy

38'

Thomas Sang

44'

Josh Flint

58'

G. Bajrami← G. Holohan

58'

L. Watson← D. Pereira

65'

Harry McKirdy

65'

Harry McKirdy

66'

D. Cashman← H. Forster

68'

C. Aneke← T. Sang

72'

Max Anderson

76'

J. Ruffels← T. McDermott

77'

I. England← A. Scully

79'

J. Marquis← I. Kabia

80'

J. Roles← K. Tshimanga

82'

84'

90+8'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyCrawley

Overview

34%Possession66%

13Total Shots15

6Corners6

13Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots15

4On Target3

2Off Target3

7Blocked9

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box9

Passing

34%Possession66%

232Total Passes480

127Accurate Passes365

55%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1

League Two: Shrewsbury 1–0 Crawley Town

Shrewsbury beat Crawley Town 1-0 in League Two on October 18, 2025.

Goals: W. Boyle (84').

Crawley Town controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Croud Meadow in Shrewsbury.

Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Shrewsbury 1–0 Crawley Town