Shrewsbury 0–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

12/29/2022

League One · Round 24Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Shrewsbury42%

×Draw26%

Cheltenham31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

Shrewsbury

1.40

Cheltenham

1.16

Shrewsbury creates 21% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 69 away

1.13

creates per match

1.01

1.31

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.13

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.31

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

69%

Shrewsbury or Cheltenham

74%

Draw or Cheltenham

58%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

20%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

75%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

41%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

17%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

69%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

32%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

58%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.13 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Shrewsbury defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

42%

level

26%

Cheltenham scores more

31%

Shrewsbury at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff