Cheltenham 2–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shrewsbury

12/26/2023

League One · Round 24Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham41%

×Draw28%

Shrewsbury31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Cheltenham

1.27

Shrewsbury

1.08

Cheltenham creates 18% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 155 away

1.19

creates per match

0.85

1.32

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.19

Shrewsbury

0.85

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.32

Shrewsbury

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

69%

Cheltenham or Shrewsbury

72%

Draw or Shrewsbury

59%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

18%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

72%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

36%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

14%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

66%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

29%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

56%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Shrewsbury defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shrewsbury attack 0.85 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cheltenham scores more

41%

level

28%

Shrewsbury scores more

31%

Cheltenham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff