Shrewsbury 2–1 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Burton Albion

8/15/2023

League One · Round 3The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 156+ matches

Shrewsbury40%

×Draw27%

Burton Albion33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.20

Shrewsbury

1.36

Burton Albion

1.20

Shrewsbury creates 13% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 179 away

1.13

creates per match

1.09

1.31

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.13

Burton Albion

1.09

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.31

Burton Albion

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

67%

Shrewsbury or Burton Albion

73%

Draw or Burton Albion

60%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

19%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

74%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

39%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

16%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

70%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

34%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

55%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.60 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.13 + Burton Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Burton Albion attack 1.09 + Shrewsbury defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

40%

level

27%

Burton Albion scores more

33%

Shrewsbury at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff