Burton Albion 0–4 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Shrewsbury

C. Dunkley 90+4'

L. Leahy 58' (pen)

C. Saydee 42', 1'

1/14/2023

League One · Round 27Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

Burton Albion42%

×Draw27%

Shrewsbury30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.08

Burton Albion

1.32

Shrewsbury

1.08

Burton Albion creates 22% more chances

Season form · 178 home / 155 away

1.28

creates per match

0.85

1.31

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Shrewsbury

0.85

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.31

Shrewsbury

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

70%

Burton Albion or Shrewsbury

73%

Draw or Shrewsbury

58%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

19%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

73%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

38%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

15%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

66%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

29%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

58%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Shrewsbury defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Shrewsbury attack 0.85 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burton Albion scores more

42%

level

27%

Shrewsbury scores more

30%

Burton Albion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

C. Dunkley

Shrewsbury · D

8.6

Match Events

1'

C. Saydee↳ R. Street

12'

Jordan Shipley

42'

C. Saydee↳ R. Street

46'

S. Winnall← T. Taylor

58'

L. LeahyPenalty

70'

71'

77'

77'

83'

86'

90'

90+4'

C. Dunkley↳ T. Bayliss

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonShrewsbury

Overview

68%Possession32%

9Total Shots11

9Corners2

8Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots11

1On Target7

3Off Target2

5Blocked2

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

572Total Passes264

444Accurate Passes144

78%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3