Shrewsbury 2–1 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Burton Albion

R. Bowman 66'

C. Saydee 13'

V. Adeboyejo 57'

9/24/2022

League One · Round 11Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 153+ matches

Shrewsbury41%

×Draw27%

Burton Albion33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.19

Shrewsbury

1.36

Burton Albion

1.19

Shrewsbury creates 14% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 176 away

1.14

creates per match

1.06

1.32

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Burton Albion

1.06

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Burton Albion

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

67%

Shrewsbury or Burton Albion

73%

Draw or Burton Albion

59%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

19%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

74%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

39%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

16%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

70%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

33%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

55%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

41%

level

27%

Burton Albion scores more

33%

Shrewsbury at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Leahy

Shrewsbury · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

C. Saydee↳ T. Bayliss

57'

V. Adeboyejo↳ A. Oshilaja

62'

R. Bowman← G. Nurse

62'

E. Bennett← R. Pyke

66'

R. Bowman↳ J. Shipley

71'

Cameron Borthwick-Jackson

74'

M. Carayol← D. Keillor-Dunn

76'

R. Street← C. Saydee

82'

S. Winnall← J. Smith

90+11'

Cheyenne Dunkley

90'

T. Onyango← T. Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyBurton

Overview

40%Possession60%

6Total Shots17

3Corners9

7Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots17

2On Target7

3Off Target4

1Blocked6

4Inside Box13

2Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

292Total Passes425

176Accurate Passes293

60%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0