Shrewsbury 3–2 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Birmingham

T. Bloxham 55'

J. Marquis 38'

A. Pierre 31'

J. Stansfield 76' (pen)

T. Iwata 44'

11/23/2024

League One · Round 17The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shrewsbury26%

×Draw26%

Birmingham48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.47

Shrewsbury

1.00

Birmingham

1.47

Birmingham creates 47% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 23 away

1.14

creates per match

1.61

1.32

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Birmingham

1.61

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Birmingham

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

52%

Shrewsbury or Birmingham

74%

Draw or Birmingham

74%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

9%

Birmingham wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

63%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

26%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

8%

Birmingham 1+ goals

77%

Birmingham 2+ goals

43%

Birmingham 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

35%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Birmingham away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Birmingham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Birmingham attack 1.61 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

26%

level

26%

Birmingham scores more

48%

Birmingham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

T. Bloxham

Shrewsbury · F

8.0

Match Events

20'

John Marquis

30'

Keshi Anderson

31'

A. Pierre↳ T. Bloxham

34'

L. Dykes← K. Anderson

38'

J. Marquis

44'

T. Iwata

55'

M. Leonard← E. Laird

55'

A. May← L. Harris

55'

T. Bloxham

71'

J. Rossiter← T. Perry

76'

J. StansfieldPenalty

81'

J. Shipley← C. Winchester

88'

A. Yokoyama← K. Bielik

90+7'

Leo Castledine

90+1'

G. Nurse← A. Nsiala

90'

G. Lloyd← T. Bloxham

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyBirmingham

Overview

20%Possession80%

7Total Shots12

1Corners2

17Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots12

4On Target5

3Off Target4

0Blocked3

5Inside Box9

2Outside Box3

Passing

20%Possession80%

170Total Passes678

66Accurate Passes575

39%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0