Birmingham 4–1 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shrewsbury

A. May 86', 77'

E. Laird 61'

B. Davies 27'

V. Oliver 87'

3/29/2025

League One · Round 39St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham62%

×Draw23%

Shrewsbury14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.67

Birmingham

1.71

Shrewsbury

0.67

Birmingham creates 155% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 152 away

2.04

creates per match

0.86

0.48

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

86%

Birmingham or Shrewsbury

77%

Draw or Shrewsbury

38%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

36%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

82%

Birmingham 2+ goals

51%

Birmingham 3+ goals

24%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

49%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

15%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

81%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Birmingham scores more

62%

level

23%

Shrewsbury scores more

14%

Birmingham at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. May

Birmingham · F

9.0

Match Events

27'

46'

48'

61'

63'

E. Hansson← K. Anderson

63'

A. Sampsted← E. Laird

73'

A. May← J. Stansfield

73'

L. Harris← W. Willumsson

76'

76'

77'

81'

86'

A. May↳ L. Harris

87'

G. Hanley← C. Klarer

87'

V. Oliver↳ J. Shipley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamShrewsbury

Overview

72%Possession28%

15Total Shots2

7Corners1

8Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots2

6On Target1

7Off Target1

2Blocked0

11Inside Box1

4Outside Box1

Passing

72%Possession28%

650Total Passes253

566Accurate Passes162

87%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2