Shortan 3–0 Olimpik-Mobiuz: Result & Stats

Shortan

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Olimpik-Mobiuz

M. Zoirov 57'

N. Mukarov 43', 15'

6/18/2024

Pro League A · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Shortan52%

×Draw25%

Olimpik-Mobiuz22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShortanExpected goals in this matchOlimpik-Mobiuz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.93

Shortan

1.57

Olimpik-Mobiuz

0.93

Shortan creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

1.45

creates per match

1.17

0.70

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Shortan

1.45

Olimpik-Mobiuz

1.17

allows per match

Shortan

0.70

Olimpik-Mobiuz

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shortan+0.00on par

Olimpik-Mobiuz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shortan ↓

Olimpik-Mobiuz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shortan or draw

78%

Shortan or Olimpik-Mobiuz

75%

Draw or Olimpik-Mobiuz

48%

Winning margin

Shortan wins by 2+

27%

Olimpik-Mobiuz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shortan 1+ goals

79%

Shortan 2+ goals

46%

Shortan 3+ goals

21%

Olimpik-Mobiuz 1+ goals

61%

Olimpik-Mobiuz 2+ goals

24%

Olimpik-Mobiuz 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shortan (draw refunded)

70%

Olimpik-Mobiuz (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shortan at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Olimpik-Mobiuz away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shortan attack 1.45 + Olimpik-Mobiuz defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Olimpik-Mobiuz attack 1.17 + Shortan defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shortan scores more

52%

level

25%

Olimpik-Mobiuz scores more

22%

Shortan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

N. Mukarov

43'

N. Mukarov

57'

M. Zoirov

87'

M. Zokhidov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff