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Olimpik-Mobiuz vs Shortan — Pro League A 2026

Olimpik-Mobiuz
Olimpik-Mobiuz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Shortan
Shortan
Zohidov Muhammadali 90+6'
Ergashev Ozodbek 90+3'
Jumayev Mirjalol 36'
A. Olimov 15'
5/3/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Olimpik-Mobiuz47%
×Draw26%
Shortan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.50
Shortan
1.07

Olimpik-Mobiuz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

creates per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.59
Shortan
1.11

allows per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.03
Shortan
1.42

finishing

Olimpik-Mobiuz+0.00on par
Shortan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik-Mobiuz ↓

Shortan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Olimpik-Mobiuz or draw
73%
Olimpik-Mobiuz or Shortan
74%
Draw or Shortan
53%

Winning margin

Olimpik-Mobiuz wins by 2+
24%
Shortan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olimpik-Mobiuz 1+ goals
78%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 2+ goals
44%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 3+ goals
19%
Shortan 1+ goals
66%
Shortan 2+ goals
29%
Shortan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olimpik-Mobiuz (draw refunded)
64%
Shortan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik-Mobiuz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Shortan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik-Mobiuz attack 1.59 + Shortan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shortan attack 1.11 + Olimpik-Mobiuz defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Olimpik-Mobiuz scores more
47%
level
26%
Shortan scores more
27%

Olimpik-Mobiuz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olimpik-Mobiuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
A. Olimov
36'
Jumayev Mirjalol
89'
R. Fomin
90+3'
Ergashev Ozodbek
90+6'
Zohidov Muhammadali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Olimpik-Mobiuz 2–2 Shortan

Olimpik-Mobiuz and Shortan drew 2-2 in Pro League A on May 3, 2024.

Goals: A. Olimov (15'), Jumayev Mirjalol (36'), Ergashev Ozodbek (90+3'), Zohidov Muhammadali (90+6').