Shonan Bellmare 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Shonan Bellmare

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

K. Onose 44'

11/30/2025

J1 League · Round 37Lemon Gas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shonan Bellmare40%

×Draw26%

Shimizu S-pulse34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shonan BellmareExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Shonan Bellmare

1.40

Shimizu S-pulse

1.25

Shonan Bellmare creates 12% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

1.33

creates per match

0.97

1.54

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.33

Shimizu S-pulse

0.97

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.54

Shimizu S-pulse

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw

66%

Shonan Bellmare or Shimizu S-pulse

74%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

60%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

19%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

75%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

41%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

17%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

71%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

36%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

55%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.33 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.97 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more

40%

level

26%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

34%

Shonan Bellmare at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shonan Bellmare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

S. Takagi

Shimizu S-pulse · D

7.5

Match Events

44'

K. Onose↳ A. Suzuki

52'

Kosuke Onose

58'

K. Matsuzaki← K. Kitagawa

66'

Takashi Inui

70'

K. Kozuka← T. Inui

70'

Y. Shimamoto← S. Yajima

70'

A. Stephens← T. Takahashi

75'

K. Okuno← A. Barada

75'

M. Ikeda← R. Nitta

79'

K. Chiba← Y. Yoshida

83'

Hiroya MatsumotoCard upgrade

85'

Hiroya Matsumoto

88'

K. Oiwa← S. Tamura

88'

Y. Suzuki← S. Ota

90+5'

N. Takahashi← K. Onose

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShonanShimizu

Overview

36%Possession64%

6Total Shots16

0.82Expected Goals (xG)0.59

3Corners5

17Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots16

2On Target3

3Off Target8

1Blocked5

3Inside Box8

3Outside Box8

Passing

36%Possession64%

345Total Passes619

268Accurate Passes525

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

6Offsides0