Shimizu S-pulse 3–0 Shonan Bellmare: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Shonan Bellmare

K. Kitagawa 67', 11' (pen)

K. Matsuzaki 28'

3/29/2025

J1 League · Round 7IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse41%

×Draw26%

Shonan Bellmare33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchShonan Bellmare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.22

Shimizu S-pulse

1.40

Shonan Bellmare

1.22

Shimizu S-pulse creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 24 away

1.17

creates per match

0.83

1.60

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.17

Shonan Bellmare

0.83

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.60

Shonan Bellmare

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Shonan Bellmare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

67%

Shimizu S-pulse or Shonan Bellmare

74%

Draw or Shonan Bellmare

59%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

19%

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

75%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

41%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

17%

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

70%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

34%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

56%

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.17 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Shonan Bellmare attack 0.83 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

41%

level

26%

Shonan Bellmare scores more

33%

Shimizu S-pulse at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

Matheus Bueno

Shimizu S-pulse · M

8.9

Match Events

9'

Min Tae Kim

11'

K. KitagawaPenalty

28'

K. Matsuzaki↳ Matheus Bueno

36'

Akito Suzuki

60'

A. Barada← T. Fujii

65'

Yuji Takahashi

67'

K. Kitagawa↳ Matheus Bueno

69'

Y. Oda← S. Fukuda

69'

H. Ishii← H. Okuno

75'

M. Ikeda← N. Takahashi

75'

Luiz Phellype← A. Suzuki

78'

K. Kozuka← K. Kitagawa

78'

H. Nakahara← K. Matsuzaki

78'

S. Yajima← T. Inui

82'

M. Yumiba← Matheus Bueno

87'

S. Kotake← K. Kitazume

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuShonan

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots6

1.47Expected Goals (xG)0.49

5Corners5

10Fouls24

Shots

8Total Shots6

4On Target0

2Off Target3

2Blocked3

5Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

335Total Passes545

242Accurate Passes452

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls24

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3