Shonan Bellmare 0–1 Nagoya Grampus: Result & Stats

Shonan Bellmare

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nagoya Grampus

8/24/2024

J1 League · Round 28Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Shonan Bellmare35%

×Draw27%

Nagoya Grampus37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shonan BellmareExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.25

Shonan Bellmare

1.21

Nagoya Grampus

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 148 away

1.01

creates per match

1.16

1.35

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.01

Nagoya Grampus

1.16

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.35

Nagoya Grampus

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw

63%

Shonan Bellmare or Nagoya Grampus

73%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

65%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

15%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

70%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

34%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

12%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

71%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

36%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

49%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.01 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.16 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more

35%

level

27%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

37%

Nagoya Grampus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff