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Nagoya Grampus vs Shonan Bellmare — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare
9/20/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Nagoya Grampus46%
×Draw26%
Shonan Bellmare28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.45
Shonan Bellmare
1.08

Nagoya Grampus creates 34% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 142 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.35
Shonan Bellmare
1.12

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.05
Shonan Bellmare
1.55

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
72%
Nagoya Grampus or Shonan Bellmare
74%
Draw or Shonan Bellmare
54%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
22%
Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
77%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
42%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
18%
Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals
66%
Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals
29%
Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
62%
Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.05 · 150 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.35 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.12 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
46%
level
26%
Shonan Bellmare scores more
28%

Nagoya Grampus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Nagoya Grampus 3–1 Shonan Bellmare

Nagoya Grampus beat Shonan Bellmare 3-1 in J1 League on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota City.