Shonan Bellmare 0–2 Kawasaki Frontale

Shonan Bellmare

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Kawasaki Frontale

9/24/2023

J1 League · Round 28Japan National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Shonan Bellmare27%

×Draw25%

Kawasaki Frontale48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shonan BellmareExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.54

Shonan Bellmare

1.09

Kawasaki Frontale

1.54

Kawasaki Frontale creates 41% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 149 away

1.01

creates per match

1.72

1.35

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.01

Kawasaki Frontale

1.72

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.35

Kawasaki Frontale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw

52%

Shonan Bellmare or Kawasaki Frontale

75%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

73%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

10%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

66%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

30%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

10%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

79%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

45%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

36%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.01 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.72 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more

27%

level

25%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

48%

Kawasaki Frontale at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff