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Kawasaki Frontale vs Shonan Bellmare — J1 League 2018

Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare
4/2/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 8Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale52%
×Draw23%
Shonan Bellmare24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawasaki Frontale
1.78
Shonan Bellmare
1.13

Kawasaki Frontale creates 58% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 142 away

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale
2.01
Shonan Bellmare
1.12

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale
1.13
Shonan Bellmare
1.55

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par
Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw
76%
Kawasaki Frontale or Shonan Bellmare
77%
Draw or Shonan Bellmare
48%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
29%
Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
83%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
53%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
26%
Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals
68%
Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals
31%
Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
68%
Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.13 · 151 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.01 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.78

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.12 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more
52%
level
23%
Shonan Bellmare scores more
24%

Kawasaki Frontale at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawasaki Frontale vs Shonan Bellmare

Kawasaki Frontale beat Shonan Bellmare 2-0 in J1 League on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium in Kawasaki.