Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka: Result & Stats

Shonan Bellmare

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Avispa Fukuoka

A. Suzuki 61'

S. Zahedi 90+4'

8/7/2024

J1 League · Round 25Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Shonan Bellmare34%

×Draw29%

Avispa Fukuoka37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shonan BellmareExpected goals in this matchAvispa Fukuoka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.11

Shonan Bellmare

1.06

Avispa Fukuoka

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 98 away

1.01

creates per match

0.88

1.35

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.01

Avispa Fukuoka

0.88

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.35

Avispa Fukuoka

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw

63%

Shonan Bellmare or Avispa Fukuoka

71%

Draw or Avispa Fukuoka

66%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

13%

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

65%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

29%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

9%

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

67%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

30%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

48%

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.01 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.88 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more

34%

level

29%

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

37%

Avispa Fukuoka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

I. Oda

Avispa Fukuoka · M

7.5

Match Events

39'

Kazunari Ono

61'

A. Suzuki

62'

M. Shigemi← R. Sato

69'

S. Zahedi← H. Mae

71'

Lukian← M. Ikeda

71'

K. Okuno← A. Barada

83'

K. Onose← A. Yoshida

83'

R. Nemoto← S. Fukuda

83'

T. Kanamori← K. Konno

83'

M. Kamekawa← I. Oda

84'

Y. Kitajima← Y. Iwasaki

90+2'

N. Yamada← A. Suzuki

90+4'

S. Zahedi↳ Y. Kitajima

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShonanAvispa

Overview

64%Possession36%

8Total Shots16

0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.13

1Corners9

10Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots16

4On Target5

4Off Target6

0Blocked5

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

64%Possession36%

485Total Passes262

379Accurate Passes167

78%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1