Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avispa Fukuoka vs Shonan Bellmare — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare
3/9/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 3Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka41%
×Draw28%
Shonan Bellmare32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.29
Shonan Bellmare
1.10

Avispa Fukuoka creates 17% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 142 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.03
Shonan Bellmare
1.12

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.09
Shonan Bellmare
1.55

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
68%
Avispa Fukuoka or Shonan Bellmare
72%
Draw or Shonan Bellmare
59%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
18%
Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
72%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
37%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
14%
Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals
67%
Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals
30%
Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
56%
Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.03 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.12 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
41%
level
28%
Shonan Bellmare scores more
32%

Avispa Fukuoka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avispa Fukuoka vs Shonan Bellmare

Avispa Fukuoka and Shonan Bellmare drew 1-1 in J1 League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.