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Sholing vs Farnham Town — League #60 2026

Sholing
Sholing
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Farnham Town
Farnham Town
B. Targett 90'
A. Liddle 85'
T. Leggett 26'
4/11/2026League #60League #60 · Round 40Mortgage Decisions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sholing54%
×Draw23%
Farnham Town23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sholing
1.83
Farnham Town
1.10

Sholing creates 66% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sholing
2.67
Farnham Town
1.54

allows per match

Sholing
0.67
Farnham Town
1.00

finishing

Sholing+0.00on par
Farnham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sholing ↓

Farnham Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sholing or draw
77%
Sholing or Farnham Town
77%
Draw or Farnham Town
46%

Winning margin

Sholing wins by 2+
31%
Farnham Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sholing 1+ goals
84%
Sholing 2+ goals
54%
Sholing 3+ goals
28%
Farnham Town 1+ goals
67%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
30%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sholing (draw refunded)
71%
Farnham Town (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sholing at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Farnham Town away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sholing attack 2.67 + Farnham Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Farnham Town attack 1.54 + Sholing defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sholing scores more
54%
level
23%
Farnham Town scores more
23%

Sholing at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sholing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
T. Leggett
85'
A. Liddle
90'
B. Targett

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sholing vs Farnham Town

Farnham Town beat Sholing 2-1 in League #60 on April 11, 2026.

Goals: T. Leggett (26'), A. Liddle (85'), B. Targett (90').

The match was played at Mortgage Decisions Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.