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Farnham Town vs Sholing — League #60 2026

Farnham Town
Farnham Town
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Sholing
Sholing
O. Ogo 45'
O. Dean 9'
J. McCarthy 34'
B. Booth 16'
9/6/2025League #60League #60 · Round 6The Memorial Ground Farnham

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Farnham Town59%
×Draw22%
Sholing19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnham Town
1.94
Sholing
1.01

Farnham Town creates 92% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Farnham Town
2.13
Sholing
0.75

allows per match

Farnham Town
1.27
Sholing
1.75

finishing

Farnham Town+0.00on par
Sholing+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnham Town ↓

Sholing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Farnham Town or draw
81%
Farnham Town or Sholing
78%
Draw or Sholing
41%

Winning margin

Farnham Town wins by 2+
35%
Sholing wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Farnham Town 1+ goals
86%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
58%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
30%
Sholing 1+ goals
64%
Sholing 2+ goals
27%
Sholing 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Farnham Town (draw refunded)
75%
Sholing (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnham Town at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Sholing away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnham Town attack 2.13 + Sholing defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sholing attack 0.75 + Farnham Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Farnham Town scores more
59%
level
22%
Sholing scores more
19%

Farnham Town at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
O. Dean
16'
B. Booth
34'
J. McCarthy
45'
O. Ogo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farnham Town vs Sholing

Farnham Town and Sholing drew 2-2 in League #60 on September 6, 2025.

Goals: O. Dean (9'), B. Booth (16'), J. McCarthy (34'), O. Ogo (45').

The match was played at The Memorial Ground Farnham in Farnham, Surrey.