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Shkupi 1927 vs Voska Sport — Cup 2020

Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927advanced
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
A. Nasimi 82', 79'
W. Hamidi 58'
S. Adetunji 51', 34'
F. Alvarez 31'
10/5/2022CupCup · Round of 16Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Shkupi 192757%
×Draw20%
Voska Sport23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkupi 1927
2.27
Voska Sport
1.40

Shkupi 1927 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Shkupi 1927
2.67
Voska Sport
2.29

allows per match

Shkupi 1927
0.50
Voska Sport
1.86

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw
77%
Shkupi 1927 or Voska Sport
80%
Draw or Voska Sport
43%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
35%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
90%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
66%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
39%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
75%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
41%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
71%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 2.67 + Voska Sport defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Voska Sport attack 2.29 + Shkupi 1927 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more
57%
level
20%
Voska Sport scores more
23%

Shkupi 1927 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shkupi 1927 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
F. Alvarez
34'
S. Adetunji
51'
S. Adetunji
58'
W. Hamidi
79'
A. Nasimi
82'
A. Nasimi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Shkupi 1927 6–0 Voska Sport

Shkupi 1927 beat Voska Sport 6-0 in Cup on October 5, 2022.

Goals: F. Alvarez (31'), S. Adetunji (34', 51'), W. Hamidi (58'), A. Nasimi (79', 82').

The match was played at Stadion Čair in Skopje.