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Shkupi 1927 vs Shkendija — First League 2019

Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shkendija
Shkendija
11/15/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Shkupi 192736%
×Draw26%
Shkendija38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkupi 1927
1.34
Shkendija
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 105 away

creates per match

Shkupi 1927
1.71
Shkendija
1.60

allows per match

Shkupi 1927
1.17
Shkendija
0.97

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par
Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

Shkendija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw
62%
Shkupi 1927 or Shkendija
74%
Draw or Shkendija
64%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
16%
Shkendija wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
74%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
39%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
15%
Shkendija 1+ goals
75%
Shkendija 2+ goals
40%
Shkendija 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
48%
Shkendija (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.71 + Shkendija defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shkendija attack 1.60 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more
36%
level
26%
Shkendija scores more
38%

Shkendija at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shkupi 1927 vs Shkendija

Shkendija beat Shkupi 1927 2-1 in First League on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Čair in Skopje.