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Shkendija vs Shkupi 1927 — First League 2019

Shkendija
Shkendija
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
8/8/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Shkendija57%
×Draw24%
Shkupi 192719%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkendija
1.73
Shkupi 1927
0.88

Shkendija creates 97% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 106 away

creates per match

Shkendija
1.87
Shkupi 1927
1.04

allows per match

Shkendija
0.71
Shkupi 1927
1.58

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par
Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Shkupi 1927 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw
81%
Shkendija or Shkupi 1927
76%
Draw or Shkupi 1927
43%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+
32%
Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals
82%
Shkendija 2+ goals
52%
Shkendija 3+ goals
25%
Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
59%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
22%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)
75%
Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.87 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Shkendija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shkendija scores more
57%
level
24%
Shkupi 1927 scores more
19%

Shkendija at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shkendija 5–1 Shkupi 1927

Shkendija beat Shkupi 1927 5-1 in First League on August 8, 2025.

The match was played at Ecolog Arena in Tetovo.