Shkupi 1927 3–1 Bregalnica Štip: Result & Stats

Shkupi 1927

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bregalnica Štip

12/4/2022

First League · Round 17Gradski Stadion Kičevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Shkupi 192753%

×Draw24%

Bregalnica Štip22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shkupi 1927Expected goals in this matchBregalnica Štip

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.99

Shkupi 1927

1.67

Bregalnica Štip

0.99

Shkupi 1927 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 47 away

1.71

creates per match

0.81

1.17

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Shkupi 1927

1.71

Bregalnica Štip

0.81

allows per match

Shkupi 1927

1.17

Bregalnica Štip

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

Bregalnica Štip →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw

78%

Shkupi 1927 or Bregalnica Štip

76%

Draw or Bregalnica Štip

47%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+

29%

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals

81%

Shkupi 1927 2+ goals

50%

Shkupi 1927 3+ goals

23%

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals

63%

Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals

26%

Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)

70%

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.71 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bregalnica Štip attack 0.81 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more

53%

level

24%

Bregalnica Štip scores more

22%

Shkupi 1927 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shkupi 1927 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff