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Bregalnica Štip vs Shkupi 1927 — First League 2019

Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
4/7/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bregalnica Štip47%
×Draw26%
Shkupi 192727%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bregalnica Štip
1.48
Shkupi 1927
1.07

Bregalnica Štip creates 38% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 106 away

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.37
Shkupi 1927
1.04

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.10
Shkupi 1927
1.58

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par
Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Shkupi 1927 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw
73%
Bregalnica Štip or Shkupi 1927
74%
Draw or Shkupi 1927
53%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
23%
Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
77%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
43%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
19%
Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
66%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
29%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
63%
Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 1.37 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more
47%
level
26%
Shkupi 1927 scores more
27%

Bregalnica Štip at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bregalnica Štip vs Shkupi 1927

Bregalnica Štip beat Shkupi 1927 1-0 in First League on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Štip.