Shkumbini Peqin 1–1 Pogradeci: Result & Stats

Shkumbini Peqin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pogradeci

12/4/2021

1st Division · Round 12Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin31%

×Draw24%

Pogradeci44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shkumbini PeqinExpected goals in this matchPogradeci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.64

Shkumbini Peqin

1.34

Pogradeci

1.64

Pogradeci creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

1.27

creates per match

1.15

2.13

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin

1.27

Pogradeci

1.15

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin

2.13

Pogradeci

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Pogradeci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw

56%

Shkumbini Peqin or Pogradeci

76%

Draw or Pogradeci

69%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+

14%

Pogradeci wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals

74%

Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals

39%

Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals

15%

Pogradeci 1+ goals

81%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

49%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)

41%

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more

31%

level

24%

Pogradeci scores more

44%

Pogradeci at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff