Pogradeci 6–0 Shkumbini Peqin: Result & Stats

Pogradeci

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Shkumbini Peqin

4/16/2022

1st Division · Round 27Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pogradeci72%

×Draw17%

Shkumbini Peqin11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PogradeciExpected goals in this matchShkumbini Peqin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.76

Pogradeci

2.31

Shkumbini Peqin

0.76

Pogradeci creates 204% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

1.68

creates per match

0.73

0.79

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Pogradeci

1.68

Shkumbini Peqin

0.73

allows per match

Pogradeci

0.79

Shkumbini Peqin

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogradeci ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Pogradeci or draw

89%

Pogradeci or Shkumbini Peqin

83%

Draw or Shkumbini Peqin

28%

Winning margin

Pogradeci wins by 2+

48%

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Pogradeci 1+ goals

90%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

67%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

40%

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals

53%

Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals

18%

Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

87%

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogradeci at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 72 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogradeci attack 1.68 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.31

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Pogradeci defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Pogradeci scores more

72%

level

17%

Shkumbini Peqin scores more

11%

Pogradeci at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff