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Shkumbini Peqin vs Korabi Peshkopi — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
CANC
12:00
Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
1/25/20201st Division1st Division · Round 13Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin32%
×Draw25%
Korabi Peshkopi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.28
Korabi Peshkopi
1.53

Korabi Peshkopi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 103 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Korabi Peshkopi
0.93

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Korabi Peshkopi
1.29

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
57%
Shkumbini Peqin or Korabi Peshkopi
75%
Draw or Korabi Peshkopi
68%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
14%
Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
72%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
37%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
14%
Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
78%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
45%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
43%
Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
32%
level
25%
Korabi Peshkopi scores more
43%

Korabi Peshkopi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shkumbini Peqin host Korabi Peshkopi

January 25, 2020: Shkumbini Peqin take on Korabi Peshkopi in 1st Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shkumbini Peqin host Korabi Peshkopi at Stadiumi Shkumbini.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.