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Korabi Peshkopi vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
CANC
12:00
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
10/5/20191st Division1st Division · Round 4Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi70%
×Draw19%
Shkumbini Peqin12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korabi Peshkopi
2.16
Shkumbini Peqin
0.74

Korabi Peshkopi creates 192% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi
1.39
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi
0.76
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw
88%
Korabi Peshkopi or Shkumbini Peqin
81%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
30%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
45%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
88%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
63%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
36%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
52%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
17%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
86%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.16

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more
70%
level
19%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
12%

Korabi Peshkopi at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Korabi Peshkopi host Shkumbini Peqin

October 5, 2019: Korabi Peshkopi take on Shkumbini Peqin in 1st Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Korabi Peshkopi host Shkumbini Peqin at Stadiumi Korabi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.