Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shkumbini Peqin vs Kastrioti Krujë — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
CANC
12:00
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
10/19/20191st Division1st Division · Round 5Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin36%
×Draw24%
Kastrioti Krujë40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Kastrioti Krujë
0.95

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Kastrioti Krujë
1.66

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
60%
Shkumbini Peqin or Kastrioti Krujë
76%
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
64%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
17%
Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
77%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
43%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
18%
Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
79%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
45%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
48%
Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.95 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
36%
level
24%
Kastrioti Krujë scores more
40%

Kastrioti Krujë at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shkumbini Peqin host Kastrioti Krujë

October 19, 2019: Shkumbini Peqin take on Kastrioti Krujë in 1st Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shkumbini Peqin host Kastrioti Krujë at Stadiumi Shkumbini.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.