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Kastrioti Krujë vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
CANC
13:00
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
2/1/20201st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë67%
×Draw19%
Shkumbini Peqin14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
2.23
Shkumbini Peqin
0.92

Kastrioti Krujë creates 142% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.52
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.10
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
86%
Kastrioti Krujë or Shkumbini Peqin
81%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
33%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
43%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
89%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
65%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
38%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
60%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
23%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
82%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 63 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.52 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.23

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
67%
level
19%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
14%

Kastrioti Krujë at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kastrioti Krujë host Shkumbini Peqin

February 1, 2020: Kastrioti Krujë take on Shkumbini Peqin in 1st Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kastrioti Krujë host Shkumbini Peqin at Stadiumi Redi Maloku.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.