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Shkumbini Peqin vs Erzeni Shijak — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
9/25/20211st Division1st Division · Round 3Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin30%
×Draw24%
Erzeni Shijak46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.28
Erzeni Shijak
1.64

Erzeni Shijak creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 55 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Erzeni Shijak
1.15

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
54%
Shkumbini Peqin or Erzeni Shijak
76%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
70%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
13%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
72%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
37%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
14%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
81%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
49%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
40%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
30%
level
24%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
46%

Erzeni Shijak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Shkumbini Peqin 3–2 Erzeni Shijak

Shkumbini Peqin beat Erzeni Shijak 3-2 in 1st Division on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shkumbini in Peqin.