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Erzeni Shijak vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
2/5/20221st Division1st Division · Round 18Stadiumi Tofik Jashari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Erzeni Shijak64%
×Draw20%
Shkumbini Peqin16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
2.06
Shkumbini Peqin
0.90

Erzeni Shijak creates 129% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.19
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.06
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
84%
Erzeni Shijak or Shkumbini Peqin
80%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
36%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
40%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
87%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
61%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
34%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
59%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
23%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
80%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.19 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.06

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
64%
level
20%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
16%

Erzeni Shijak at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Erzeni Shijak 3–1 Shkumbini Peqin

Erzeni Shijak beat Shkumbini Peqin 3-1 in 1st Division on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tofik Jashari in Shijak.