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Shkumbini Peqin vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
CANC
12:00
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11/23/20191st Division1st Division · Round 9Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin25%
×Draw25%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.07
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.61

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.09

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.87

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
50%
Shkumbini Peqin or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
75%
Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
75%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
9%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
66%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
29%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
9%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
80%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
48%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
34%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.09 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
25%
level
25%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
50%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shkumbini Peqin vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë — Match Preview

Shkumbini Peqin face Egnatia Rrogozhinë on November 23, 2019 in this 1st Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shkumbini Peqin host Egnatia Rrogozhinë at Stadiumi Shkumbini.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.