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Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
CANC
13:00
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
2/29/20201st Division1st Division · Round 18Stadiumi Hasan Zyla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë75%
×Draw17%
Shkumbini Peqin8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
2.21
Shkumbini Peqin
0.57

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 288% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

creates per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.50
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.41
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw
92%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Shkumbini Peqin
83%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
25%

Winning margin

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
50%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
89%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
65%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
38%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
43%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
11%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
90%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.50 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.21

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
75%
level
17%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
8%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shkumbini Peqin — Match Preview

Egnatia Rrogozhinë face Shkumbini Peqin on February 29, 2020 in this 1st Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë host Shkumbini Peqin at Stadiumi Hasan Zyla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.