Shkumbini Peqin vs Dinamo Tirana

Shkumbini Peqin

CANC

12:00

Dinamo Tirana

12/14/2019

1st Division · Round 11Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin28%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Tirana48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shkumbini PeqinExpected goals in this matchDinamo Tirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.65

Shkumbini Peqin

1.21

Dinamo Tirana

1.65

Dinamo Tirana creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 36 away

1.27

creates per match

1.17

2.13

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin

1.27

Dinamo Tirana

1.17

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin

2.13

Dinamo Tirana

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Dinamo Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw

52%

Shkumbini Peqin or Dinamo Tirana

76%

Draw or Dinamo Tirana

72%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+

11%

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals

70%

Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals

34%

Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

81%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

49%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)

37%

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.17 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more

28%

level

24%

Dinamo Tirana scores more

48%

Dinamo Tirana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff