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Dinamo Tirana vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
CANC
14:00
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
9/21/20191st Division1st Division · Round 2Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo Tirana72%
×Draw18%
Shkumbini Peqin10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
2.23
Shkumbini Peqin
0.71

Dinamo Tirana creates 214% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.53
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
0.69
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
90%
Dinamo Tirana or Shkumbini Peqin
82%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
28%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
48%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
89%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
65%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
38%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
51%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
16%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
87%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.53 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.23

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Dinamo Tirana defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
72%
level
18%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
10%

Dinamo Tirana at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Tirana vs Shkumbini Peqin — Match Preview

Dinamo Tirana face Shkumbini Peqin on September 21, 2019 in this 1st Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dinamo Tirana host Shkumbini Peqin at Kompleksi Internacional.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.