Shkumbini Peqin 1–2 Butrinti Sarandë

Shkumbini Peqin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Butrinti Sarandë

3/5/2022

1st Division · Round 22Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin38%

×Draw25%

Butrinti Sarandë37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shkumbini PeqinExpected goals in this matchButrinti Sarandë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.39

Shkumbini Peqin

1.40

Butrinti Sarandë

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

1.27

creates per match

0.65

2.13

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin

1.27

Butrinti Sarandë

0.65

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin

2.13

Butrinti Sarandë

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Butrinti Sarandë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw

63%

Shkumbini Peqin or Butrinti Sarandë

75%

Draw or Butrinti Sarandë

62%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+

17%

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals

75%

Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals

41%

Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals

17%

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals

75%

Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals

40%

Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)

50%

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Butrinti Sarandë away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Butrinti Sarandë attack 0.65 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more

38%

level

25%

Butrinti Sarandë scores more

37%

Shkumbini Peqin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shkumbini Peqin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff