Butrinti Sarandë 5–2 Shkumbini Peqin

Butrinti Sarandë

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Shkumbini Peqin

10/30/2021

1st Division · Round 7Stadiumi Andon Lapa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Butrinti Sarandë70%

×Draw19%

Shkumbini Peqin12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Butrinti SarandëExpected goals in this matchShkumbini Peqin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.77

Butrinti Sarandë

2.19

Shkumbini Peqin

0.77

Butrinti Sarandë creates 184% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

1.44

creates per match

0.73

0.81

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Butrinti Sarandë

1.44

Shkumbini Peqin

0.73

allows per match

Butrinti Sarandë

0.81

Shkumbini Peqin

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Butrinti Sarandë ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Butrinti Sarandë or draw

88%

Butrinti Sarandë or Shkumbini Peqin

81%

Draw or Shkumbini Peqin

30%

Winning margin

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+

45%

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals

89%

Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals

64%

Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals

37%

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals

54%

Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals

18%

Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)

85%

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Butrinti Sarandë at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Butrinti Sarandë attack 1.44 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.19

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Butrinti Sarandë scores more

70%

level

19%

Shkumbini Peqin scores more

12%

Butrinti Sarandë at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Butrinti Sarandë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff