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Shkumbini Peqin vs Burreli — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Burreli
Burreli
12/19/20211st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin34%
×Draw25%
Burreli41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.35
Burreli
1.49

Burreli creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Burreli
0.86

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Burreli
1.44

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Burreli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
59%
Shkumbini Peqin or Burreli
75%
Draw or Burreli
66%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
15%
Burreli wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
74%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
39%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
15%
Burreli 1+ goals
77%
Burreli 2+ goals
44%
Burreli 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
46%
Burreli (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Burreli defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Burreli attack 0.86 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
34%
level
25%
Burreli scores more
41%

Burreli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shkumbini Peqin vs Burreli

Burreli beat Shkumbini Peqin 1-0 in 1st Division on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shkumbini in Peqin.