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Burreli vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Burreli
Burreli
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
4/30/20221st Division1st Division · Round 29Stadiumi Liri Ballabani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Burreli69%
×Draw20%
Shkumbini Peqin11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burreli
2.03
Shkumbini Peqin
0.67

Burreli creates 203% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 15 away

creates per match

Burreli
1.13
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Burreli
0.61
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Burreli or draw
89%
Burreli or Shkumbini Peqin
80%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
31%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+
44%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals
87%
Burreli 2+ goals
60%
Burreli 3+ goals
33%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
49%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
15%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)
86%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.03

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Burreli scores more
69%
level
20%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
11%

Burreli at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burreli vs Shkumbini Peqin

Burreli beat Shkumbini Peqin 2-0 in 1st Division on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Liri Ballabani in Burreli.